Fiscal Model & Evidence Room · Schedule G Revenue Build-Up

“How do you get $749 billion?”

Every revenue and cost stream in the NSRA fiscal model, on one page, with its statutory authority, baseline source, assumptions, phase-in, sensitivity, confidence, and official-scoring status. Enough for a qualified reviewer to understand the claim, reproduce the public-facing calculation, and identify each assumption.

This is the evidence layer behind the interactive model. Figures are NSRA Year-1 estimates, internally modeled and sensitivity-tested, not an official CBO or JCT score, which is pending and welcomed.

$784.6B

Gross modeled revenue

Sum of the revenue streams below (12 CBO-scored base + supplemental enforcement), full realization.

−$35B

Program-linked costs

Student-loan zero-interest + SPI wage-floor credit.

~$749B

Central net Year-1 revenue

After program-linked cost netting (−$35B). Realization is a sensitivity lever, not a headline subtraction.

~$554B

Modeled deficit reduction

After ~$196B in revenue-funded program outlays.

Year 4

Central balanced-budget projection

Range Yr 3–5.

$1.9T

Current federal deficit

CBO FY2026 projection.

~$1.6T

Federal borrowing, FY-to-date

debt change since FY start · not the net deficit

~101%

Debt / GDP

CBO Budget & Economic Outlook 2026–2036.

$39.2T

Live U.S. national debt

· U.S. Treasury

Reconciliation. Conservative per-stream assumptions are embedded in the gross estimates; enforcement realization and behavioral effects are sensitivity levers in the interactive model, not additional headline subtractions. The only headline adjustments are program-linked cost netting and revenue-funded outlays, shown in the bridge below.

The $784.6B to $554B bridge

Gross scored stream revenue (conservative baselines embedded)	$784.6B
Less program-linked revenue offsets (student-loan zero-interest −$25B; SPI wage-floor credit −$10B)	−$35.0B
Central net Year-1 revenue	$749.6B
Less revenue-funded program outlays (BMP coverage, veterans, Child Prosperity Trust, housing support, wage-floor credits, administration)	−$195.6B
Annual deficit reduction	$554.0B

At full realization. Per-program outlay dollar splits are being itemized; the aggregate reconciles to the $554B headline. See the projections CSV and workbook.

Taxonomy. The build below shows 15 rows: 12 CBO-scored base revenue streams plus supplemental enforcement recapture, and 2 program-linked cost rows. Headline revenue is the 12 base streams plus supplemental enforcement. FTT / FTA overlap: the 0.1% Financial Transaction Tax (Sec. 2413) and the 0.02% Financial Transaction Assessment (Sec. 2405) apply to separate transaction classes, retail/broad market versus large institutional trades above $1M, and are scored on non-overlapping bases, so a single transaction is not charged under both.

The ten-year score window

Congressional scoring runs over a multiyear window, so here is the central path. Revenue ramps as enforcement capacity is rebuilt (realization of 86 / 94 / 98 / 100% across Years 1 through 4, then a 2% annual growth assumption), which is why Year 1 is lower than the steady-state figure. The ~$554B headline is the full-realization annual figure, reached around Year 3; the balanced-budget projection is Year 4 central.

Fiscal year	Net revenue	Program outlays	Deficit reduction	Cumulative
Year 1	$640B	$196B	$444B	$444B
Year 2	$717B	$199B	$518B	$962B
Year 3	$764B	$202B	$562B	$1,524B
Year 4	$795B	$205B	$591B	$2,115B
Year 5	$811B	$208B	$604B	$2,719B
Year 6	$828B	$211B	$617B	$3,336B
Year 7	$844B	$214B	$630B	$3,966B
Year 8	$861B	$217B	$644B	$4,610B
Year 9	$878B	$220B	$658B	$5,268B
Year 10	$896B	$224B	$672B	$5,940B
10-yr total	$8,034B	$2,093B	$5,940B	$5,940B

Ten-year deficit reduction totals $5.94T central ($5.23T low, $6.42T high). Every input is separated from the formulas in the downloadable scorer workbook (assumptions, revenue streams, program costs, annual phase-in, ten-year window, low/base/high scenarios, source register, version history), so a reviewer can change any assumption and re-score. This is a preliminary model, not an official CBO or JCT score.

How the math works

How money is captured. The revenue is not a new tax on households. It is captured by recapturing value that already leaves the domestic economy: the offshore tax gap, closed loopholes, restored IRS enforcement, monopoly and rent extraction, mineral-royalty modernization, and a minimum tax on multinationals. Every dollar collected is deposited into the Sovereign Infrastructure Reinvestment Fund (SIRF), a locked Treasury account, and flows back out to fund the benefits. That is the closed loop, revenue in, benefits out, no new borrowing.

The realization throttle. Each stream is confidence-weighted and realization-adjusted. Enforcement capacity ramps over several years, so the model does not assume 100% collection on day one. The central estimate applies conservative realization, and the interactive model lets you set your own realization rate to watch the number move. Nothing here depends on optimistic collection.

The certification gate. Benefits cannot outrun revenue. Major SIRF disbursements require CBO certification, and household relief phases in through a tranche-based escalation lock, Gate 1 then Gate 2, tied to certified SIRF balances. No benefit activates faster than the revenue funding it, so the structure stays deficit-neutral by design.

The reconciliation. Gross modeled revenue of roughly $785B is reduced by conservative realization and program-linked costs to the ~$749B central net figure, and to ~$554B in annual deficit reduction after ~$196B in revenue-funded outlays, with a central balanced-budget projection by Year 4. Every line below is one of the capture streams that adds up to that total.

Preliminary score on published CBO/JCT baselines · pending official scoring

Preliminary Scoring Tool

The headline output is the dollar score; the confidence-coverage percent beside it shows how much of it rests on higher-confidence baselines. Deselect any stream you do not credit and the score recomputes.

Every stream is built on a published government baseline (CBO, JCT, Treasury, OECD, and peer agencies). This is a preliminary score, pending official scoring, which is welcomed.

Revenue streams — deselect any you do not credit

Scoring conventions

Enforcement realization rate: 90%

Share of each stream actually collected as capacity ramps.

Confidence-weight each stream (high/moderate/preliminary) Apply behavioral haircut to elasticity-sensitive streams (15%) Add dynamic (macro-feedback) uplift, +3%

Preliminary score · pending official scoring

$0B

Year-1 net revenue

High/mod confidence

Annual deficit reduction$0B

10-year revenue$0T

Streams selected15 / 15

Central balance yearYear 4

Preliminary score. Built from the streams above, each anchored to a published CBO, JCT, IRS, Treasury, OECD, BEA, GAO, or peer-reviewed baseline (FY2025), using the conventions and selections you set. It is a preliminary aggregation pending official scoring, which is welcomed, and reflects scoring conventions rather than the line-by-line microsimulation an official score performs.

Revenue streams, evidence cards

SS payroll cap elimination

$150B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2408
Mechanism	Apply Social Security payroll tax to wages above the current taxable maximum.
Baseline source	SSA Trustees / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Applied above the current wage cap; no avoidance leakage beyond historical norms.
Phase-in	Y1–Y2
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Corporate rate restoration 21%→28%

$110B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2409
Mechanism	Restore the statutory corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%.
Baseline source	JCT
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Static rate change on current corporate base; standard behavioral offset.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Low–Moderate
Confidence	High
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

IRS enforcement fund (net)

$90B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2406
Mechanism	Net revenue from restored, sustained tax-enforcement capacity after administrative cost.
Baseline source	CBO / Treasury
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Realization ramps as enforcement capacity is rebuilt; net of admin cost.
Phase-in	Y2–Y5
Sensitivity	High
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Carbon dividend fee

$85B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2410
Mechanism	Upstream fee on carbon content; portion recycled as dividend, remainder to the fisc.
Baseline source	CBO / Treasury / EIA
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Fee level and coverage per statute; demand response within published elasticities.
Phase-in	Y1–Y3
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

OECD Pillar Two implementation

$75B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2411
Mechanism	Domestic implementation of the 15% global minimum tax (GloBE).
Baseline source	OECD / JCT
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	U.S. adoption consistent with the multilateral framework.
Phase-in	Y1–Y2
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Financial transaction tax 0.1%

$75B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2413
Mechanism	0.1% excise on covered securities transactions.
Baseline source	JCT / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Volume contraction within published behavioral ranges.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	High
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Step-up basis reform (>$5M)

$50B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2412
Mechanism	Limit stepped-up basis at death above a $5M threshold.
Baseline source	JCT
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Threshold indexed; realization timing per JCT convention.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

NIMA domestic gross assessment 0.18% (>$100M)

$39.6B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2404
Mechanism	0.18% assessment on domestic gross receipts of firms above $100M.
Baseline source	BEA / internal build
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Applies to receipts above threshold; narrow base, low rate.
Phase-in	Y1–Y2
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Preliminary
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Federal land + mineral royalty reform

$30B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2414
Mechanism	Modernize below-market federal onshore royalty and leasing rates.
Baseline source	Interior / GAO / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Rate alignment toward state/market benchmarks.
Phase-in	Y1–Y3
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Financial-sector excess-profits assessment

$20B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2415
Mechanism	Assessment on large financial institutions' excess profits.
Baseline source	FDIC / BEA / internal
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Applies to institutions above size threshold.
Phase-in	Y1–Y2
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Preliminary
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

FDVM Medicare fraud detection

$20B

Statutory authority	Sec. 101/103 (Title I)
Mechanism	Recovered outlays from fraud-detection and verification systems.
Baseline source	HHS-OIG / GAO / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Recovery scales as detection systems deploy.
Phase-in	Y2–Y4
Sensitivity	High
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

LBO interest deductibility cap (30% EBITDA)

$18B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2403
Mechanism	Cap interest deductibility on leveraged buyouts at 30% of EBITDA.
Baseline source	JCT
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Consistent with existing 163(j) mechanics.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Carried interest → ordinary income

$14B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2402
Mechanism	Tax carried interest as ordinary income.
Baseline source	JCT
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Standard JCT treatment.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Low
Confidence	High
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

FTA institutional trades 0.02% (>$1M)

$7B

Statutory authority	Sec. 2405
Mechanism	0.02% assessment on large institutional trades above $1M.
Baseline source	JCT / internal
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Narrow high-value base.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Preliminary
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

SNAP retailer fraud recovery

$1B

Statutory authority	Sec. 101/103 (Title I)
Mechanism	Recovered funds from retailer-side SNAP fraud enforcement.
Baseline source	USDA-OIG / GAO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Conservative recovery rate.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Low
Confidence	High
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Program-linked costs

Student-loan zero-interestProgram cost

−$25B

Statutory authority	Program cost
Mechanism	Forgone interest under the zero-interest student-loan provision.
Baseline source	Education / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Cost, not revenue; offset within program outlays.
Phase-in	Y1
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

SPI wage-floor tax creditProgram cost

−$10B

Statutory authority	Program cost
Mechanism	Cost of the Sovereign Prosperity Index wage-floor credit.
Baseline source	JCT / CBO
Base year	FY2025
Model assumption	Cost, not revenue.
Phase-in	Y1–Y2
Sensitivity	Moderate
Confidence	Moderate
Status	Internally modeled
External review	Pending
Official score	Pending

Disclosure & scope. Baseline sources are the published federal, institutional, and academic references a reviewer would use to check each line (CBO, JCT, Treasury, SSA, OECD, Interior, HHS-OIG, GAO, USDA-OIG, BEA, EIA). Base year is FY2025 unless noted. “Confidence” reflects internal modeling maturity, not external validation. All streams are internally modeled; external review and official CBO/JCT scoring are pending and welcomed. Proprietary modeling methods are not exposed where unnecessary; enough is disclosed for a qualified reviewer to reproduce the public-facing calculation. Full basis: Figure-by-Figure Sourcing and Schedule G. Items excluded from the base estimate (e.g., contingent WEA upside) are treated as upside, not counted in the central figure.

Open the interactive model Figure-by-Figure Sourcing (PDF) Request a fiscal briefing

Scoring input	What it is	Where it is provided
Statutory authority	The revenue-creating sections, in full	Bill text + per-stream section cites in Schedule G
Line-by-line revenue build-up	Each stream sized and sourced individually	Schedule G
Baseline sources	CBO, JCT, IRS, Treasury, OECD, BEA, GAO, PNAS	Source Register / Figure Sourcing
Base year	FY2025 baseline, stated per stream	Schedule G (Base year field)
Assumptions: static vs dynamic, behavioral response	Explicit per stream; standard behavioral offsets	Fiscal Scorebook + Schedule G
Phase-in / timing (Yr 1–10)	When each stream ramps	Schedule G (Phase-in field)
Sensitivity (low / base / high)	Scenario ranges and realization	Scorebook scenarios + interactive model
Interaction with current law	Overlap to reconcile in formal scoring	Flagged per stream; noted for reconciliation
10-year window	Multi-year totals where applicable	Scorebook (e.g., $550B / 10-yr pharma)
Items excluded from the base	Contingent upside (e.g., WEA) held out	Flagged as upside, not in the central figure
Open technical questions	What a rigorous scorer should probe	Open Technical Questions
Scoring-request materials	To open a formal engagement	Legislative Packet + request form below

“How do you get $749 billion?”

The ten-year score window

How the math works

Preliminary Scoring Tool

Revenue streams, evidence cards

Program-linked costs

Talk to us about the numbers

Everything needed to score it

Constitutional grounding: authority and protections